The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) has approved another increase in oil production quotas, authorising an additional 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) for September as the alliance continues to unwind voluntary supply cuts introduced in 2023.
The decision, announced on Sunday after a virtual meeting of key producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, marks the fourth consecutive monthly output increase of the same volume, following similar hikes in June, July and August.
The September adjustment effectively completes, at least on paper, the reversal of one phase of the production cuts introduced in 2023 to stabilise global oil prices and prevent a supply glut.
Industry analysts expect OPEC+ to maintain production quotas at current levels for the remainder of the year while monitoring demand, geopolitical developments, and broader market conditions.
The latest move reflects OPEC+’s strategy of gradually restoring crude supplies to the global market despite continued tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran.
Although the alliance has approved successive production increases, the impact on actual global oil supply has been limited. Several member countries remain unable to produce up to their quotas because of technical constraints, sanctions, underinvestment, and disruptions affecting oil exports through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
The September increase is expected to provide additional room for major Gulf producers, especially Saudi Arabia, to boost production when regional export routes stabilise.
While OPEC+ is widely expected to pause further increases after September, the alliance has indicated that future decisions will remain dependent on market conditions and geopolitical risks.
For Nigeria, the latest OPEC+ decision comes at a time when the country is steadily improving crude oil production and outperforming its assigned quota.
According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria produced an average of 1.56 million bpd in June 2026, its highest monthly crude oil output since April 2020.
The country also exceeded its OPEC quota for a second consecutive month after producing 1.53 million bpd in May. Before then, Nigeria last surpassed its allocation in July 2025, reflecting sustained gains driven by improved production efficiency and stronger efforts to combat crude oil theft.
The additional production flexibility offered by OPEC+ could help Nigeria move closer to the 1.84 million bpd production target contained in the 2026 federal budget, boosting government revenue and foreign exchange earnings.
Higher crude production is already translating into stronger financial performance for NNPC Limited.
The national oil company reported a profit after tax of N535 billion in June 2026, representing a 15.8 per cent increase from N462 billion recorded in May, according to its latest monthly financial and operations report.
NNPC also posted N4.39 trillion in revenue for June, with the profit marking its strongest monthly performance since August 2025.
For Nigeria, the combination of rising crude production, improving NNPC earnings and OPEC+’s continued easing of supply restrictions strengthens the government’s efforts to increase fiscal revenues, improve foreign exchange inflows and meet the oil production assumptions underpinning the 2026 budget.
