Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, down slightly from 15.15 per cent in December 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The marginal decline surprised analysts who had projected a spike to between 18 and 19 per cent, especially following the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) normalisation, which created a lower base effect for January 2025.
Food and core inflation moderate
The January reading reflects slower price growth across both major components of the inflation basket:
- Food inflation dropped to 8.89 per cent
- Core inflation eased to 17.72 per cent
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation stood at -2.88 per cent, a sharp moderation compared to 0.54 per cent in December. This indicates that average prices rose at a slower pace in January than in the previous month.
Last week, Tunde Abidoye, Head of Equity Research at FBNQuest, had projected an uptick to the 18–19 per cent range. However, he also anticipated a broader disinflationary trend in 2026, supported by softer energy prices, exchange rate stability, and easing food costs.
Research analysts at Meristem said inflationary pressures continued to moderate in January, driven by post-holiday demand normalisation and relatively strong supply conditions.
Data from Meristem’s commodities tracker showed sustained cooling in food prices, with maize and sorghum recording declines, while paddy rice posted slower price increases. However, oilseeds such as soya beans and sesame experienced renewed price pressures due to stronger export demand.
Petrol (PMS) prices remained largely stable during the month, following the December price reduction by Dangote Refinery. Most filling stations sold PMS at around ₦739 per litre, helping to contain transport-related inflation.
Meanwhile, the naira appreciated by 7.82 per cent in January, averaging ₦1,416.52/$ in the official market compared to ₦1,451.80/$ in December. The stronger currency is expected to reduce import-related costs and further ease foreign exchange–sensitive components of the core inflation index.
Despite the modest decline, the January data reinforces expectations of a gradual disinflationary trend in 2026. Stable fuel prices, improved supply conditions, and exchange rate gains may continue to anchor price growth, provided external and domestic shocks remain contained.
