By Elvis Eromosele
At the recent African Defence Chiefs Conference, Bayo Ojulari, Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), pointed fingers at “sophisticated international syndicates exploiting security gaps” as the main culprits behind Nigeria’s crude oil theft. The claim drew attention and headlines as expected. After all, it is convenient to blame shadowy foreign actors for the billions of dollars Nigeria loses to oil theft each year.
But that framing, while partially true, is dangerously incomplete. The crisis of crude oil theft is not simply an external conspiracy; it is also a deeply Nigerian problem. For decades, corruption, weak institutions, and local complicity have sustained this multi-billion-dollar racket. Unless we face these uncomfortable truths, oil theft will remain the country’s biggest economic albatross.
Reports indicate that Nigeria has lost over $25.7 billion to crude oil theft in the last 23 years. In 2024/2025 alone, billions vanished annually, with losses greater than the entire production of some OPEC members. Yet not all of it was theft. Between 2020 and 2022, as much as 40 per cent of “stolen crude” turned out to be errors from poor metering and decrepit infrastructure. These are problems squarely within Nigeria’s control.
Meanwhile, evidence of local complicity abounds. In February 2025, NNPCL reported uncovering 15 illegal pipeline taps and 22 illegal refineries in a single week. These are not the work of distant cartels alone, but of local groups with insider help. Poor infrastructure, underinvestment, and corruption have created fertile ground for this criminal industry, costing Nigeria N636 billion in revenue recently.
Then there is the Niger Delta factor. For many in oil-producing communities, crude theft has become a survival strategy. Poverty, exclusion, and environmental degradation have made illicit refining and bunkering attractive alternatives. At the higher levels, elite involvement has turned crude theft into a sophisticated operation. This is why parliamentary hearings often identify corruption and weak enforcement, not just foreign actors, as the real enablers.
This unfortunate situation cannot be allowed to continue. But if Nigeria is to break this cycle, the response must be both inward-looking and comprehensive. International cooperation has its place, but without domestic reforms, external blame will only paper over cracks.
First, there must be an urgent deployment of technology and modern infrastructure. This means that Nigeria must invest in real-time surveillance systems, think drones, satellites, and AI-powered monitoring, to protect pipelines and track crude movements. Upgrading metering infrastructure and building modular refineries will reduce leakages and undercut incentives for illegal refining.
Secondly, we must be prepared to enforce laws and strengthen security. Here, the proposed 2025 Crude Oil Theft Prevention Bill is a step in the right direction. But laws must be enforced consistently, with penalties that bite. Security operations such as Operation Delta Safe need more resources – gunboats, drones, and community policing- to secure vulnerable assets.
In addition, we must insist on transparency. Credible, publicly accessible data from bodies like NEITI can help Nigerians track the scale of theft. Transparency will shift the narrative from vague estimates and finger-pointing to evidence-driven solutions.
Moreover, we should be prepared to address local grievances. Oil theft thrives because many Niger Delta communities feel excluded from the wealth under their feet. Jobs, skills programmes, and targeted investments can undercut the socio-economic drivers of theft, while giving local youths a stake in legal economic activity.
Furthermore, the country has to balance global partnerships with domestic accountability. Collaboration with foreign partners, such as recent technology-sharing initiatives with Spain, is invaluable. But Nigeria must ensure that international engagement complements, rather than replaces, much-needed domestic reforms.
So, we agree that crude oil theft remains one of Nigeria’s most pressing economic challenges. But blaming international syndicates alone is not only simplistic; it risks becoming a dangerous distraction. The stolen crude may find its markets abroad, but its roots are firmly planted in Nigerian soil, corruption, weak enforcement, and social exclusion.
If the government and NNPCL are serious about meeting the target of three million barrels per day by the end of 2025, they must confront these internal weaknesses head-on. Foreign partnerships can help, but the real battle will be won or lost at home.
Elvis Eromosele, a corporate communications professional and sustainability advocate, wrote via elviseroms@gmail.com.
