Nigeria’s dependence on imported petrol dropped sharply in the first quarter of 2025, with the country’s petrol import bill falling by 54 per cent year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The sharp decline is largely due to increased domestic supply from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which is now operating at near-full capacity, significantly reducing the country’s reliance on foreign fuel.
The latest NBS data shows Nigeria spent $1.2 billion on petrol imports in Q1 2025, compared to $2.6 billion in the same period last year — the lowest quarterly figure since 2020. This underscores the growing impact of the 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery, which began full-scale operations in late 2024.
Before Dangote Refinery came online, Nigeria imported nearly 90 percent of its petrol, exposing the economy to exchange rate volatility and frequent supply disruptions.
The NBS also revealed that Nigeria spent ₦1.76 trillion on petrol imports in Q1 2025, a 46.68 percent drop from the previous quarter and a 33.14 percent decrease from ₦2.63 trillion recorded in Q1 2024.
Industry analysts credit the Dangote Refinery and a growing number of modular refineries for helping Nigeria meet a larger share of its domestic fuel demand — estimated at around 50 million litres per day.
“They are importing a lot less, and traders are making up the shortfall from offshore Lome,” one fuel trader told Platts, referring to the key blending hub off the coast of Togo.
In February, the Dangote Group announced that the refinery was already supplying up to 60 percent of Nigeria’s petrol needs, with output nearing full capacity. By late January, company officials confirmed production of over 30 million litres per day, indicating the facility had reached over 85 percent utilisation.
This equates to roughly 200,000 barrels per day, meeting a large portion of Nigeria’s daily petrol demand, estimated at 350,000 bpd by S&P Global Commodity Insights.
As domestic production surges, petrol imports have plunged by about 30 million litres, marking a turning point in Nigeria’s quest for energy self-sufficiency and a more stable downstream oil sector.
