Lagos requires about N6 trillion in annual housing investment to bridge its housing capital gap, as the state’s housing deficit has climbed to 3.4 million units, a new research report by GTI Investment Group has found.
The findings were presented at the “Beyond Rent: A Lagos Housing and Capital Forum” organised by GTI Investment Group on Thursday, August 20, 2026.
Prof. Timothy G. Nubi, Founding Director of the University of Lagos Centre for Housing and Sustainable Development, disclosed the figures in his keynote presentation, “Housing, Capital and the Future of Lagos.”
The forum brought together government officials, housing experts, investors, developers and economists to examine how long-term capital can be mobilised to address Lagos’ worsening housing and affordability crisis.
According to Nubi, Lagos’ housing deficit increased from 2.95 million units in 2016 to 3.4 million units in 2025, representing a 15 per cent increase over nine years.
He said the state needs approximately 227,576 new housing units every year to keep pace with population growth and continuing migration into the economic hub.
“Lagos has become Africa’s economic capital, but its housing system has failed to convert economic growth into affordable living and wealth creation,” Nubi said.
He argued that the scale of the deficit means the government cannot solve the problem through public construction alone.
According to him, private developers, mortgage institutions, pension funds and capital-market investors must play a larger role in financing housing supply.
GTI Group Head of Research, Abiodun Ogunniyi, said the annual housing capital gap in Lagos is estimated at N6 trillion, about three times the state’s entire capital budget.
He described the housing crisis as more than a shortage of homes, arguing that it is also a problem of capital allocation, affordability and infrastructure pricing.
The research found that rents across Lagos increased by 80 per cent to 120 per cent between 2024 and 2026, while median wages grew by only about 7 per cent to 9 per cent over the same period.
This widening gap has placed increasing pressure on household incomes.
The study found that some Lagos residents now spend 60 per cent to 70 per cent of their income on rent.
For example, a two-bedroom apartment could consume about 29 per cent of the income of a worker earning N1 million monthly, 58 per cent for someone earning N500,000 and as much as 97 per cent for a worker earning N300,000.
For low-income earners on N70,000 monthly, housing costs could consume between 36 per cent and 119 per cent of income, even in some peripheral areas such as Ikorodu.
The GTI research identified infrastructure as the biggest factor influencing property prices across the 15 zones studied.
It also put Lagos’ property price-to-income ratio at 19.2 times, far above the 5.0-times threshold regarded as severely unaffordable.
Rental prices vary sharply across the city.
In Ikoyi, the study estimated annual rent for a two-bedroom apartment at between N8 million and N70 million, with an average field-survey figure of N30 million.
Victoria Island recorded rents ranging from N3 million for self-contained accommodation to more than N50 million, with the average two-bedroom rent estimated at N18 million.
In Yaba, Surulere and Ikeja, rents for self-contained to two-bedroom properties ranged from N1.5 million to N12 million, while the average two-bedroom rent was about N4.75 million to N5 million.
Lekki Phase 1 recorded rents between N1 million and N40 million, with an average of N15 million for a standalone two-bedroom apartment.
Further away from the city centre, the average two-bedroom rent was estimated at N3 million to N3.5 million in Ajah and Sangotedo, compared with N1.08 million in Ikorodu and N480,000 in Badagry.
Nubi said Nigeria’s pension funds hold about N30 trillion in assets and are permitted to invest up to 30 per cent in instruments such as REITs, mortgages and asset-backed securities.
However, he said only about 5 per cent is currently allocated to housing-related instruments.
He argued that housing should no longer be viewed simply as a physical product but as an institutional investment asset capable of attracting long-term capital.
He identified REITs, bonds, asset-backed securities, crowdfunding and mortgage innovations as potential vehicles for expanding housing finance.
