Nigeria’s headline inflation rate is projected to rise to 16.42 per cent year-on-year in April 2026 as persistent increases in food and energy prices continue to pressure consumer costs, according to a new report by the Financial Market Dealers Association.
The forecast, released on May 13, is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organization.
FMDA also projected month-on-month inflation at 2.78 per cent in April, lower than the 4.18 per cent recorded in March but still elevated compared to the broader disinflation trend seen since the second half of 2025.
The latest projection signals a reversal of the steady decline in annual inflation, which had dropped from 27.35% in March 2025 to 15.06 per cent in February 2026 before edging higher to 15.38 per cent in March.
According to the report, rising petrol prices and food costs remain the biggest drivers of inflationary pressure.
Average PMS prices increased to N1,322.50 in April from N1,208.38 in March, representing a 9.44 per cent rise. Food prices also continued upward, with the domestic food price index climbing to 3.69 from 3.60.
Staples such as yam, maize, millet, sorghum and watermelon recorded notable increases during the month.
Despite the pressure, FMDA noted that the slower pace of fuel price increases and the appreciation of the naira could help moderate overall inflation. The naira strengthened by 1.36 per cent to an average of N1,361.22/$ in April.
The report highlighted worsening global commodity conditions as another major risk factor.
Brent crude oil prices surged to $120.4 per barrel in April from $103.7 in March, driven largely by renewed Middle East tensions and disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
The FAO Food Price Index rose 1.6 per cent to 130.7 points, while the World Bank Energy Index climbed to 146.4 points.
Globally, inflation also accelerated across several economies, including the United States, Euro Area, Kenya and Ghana.
FMDA said the latest inflation outlook reflects renewed cost-push pressures rather than a collapse in monetary policy effectiveness.
The report noted that while the worst effects of the recent fuel price shock may be easing, sustained high global oil prices and rising food costs could continue to pressure transportation, logistics and household spending in the months ahead.
