Nigerian businesses and households expect inflationary pressures to ease over the next six months, but rising energy costs remain the biggest source of concern, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) July 2026 Inflation Expectation Survey.
The survey found that although respondents anticipate a gradual decline in inflation-related spending, the cost of petrol, diesel and electricity continues to shape perceptions of rising prices more than any other factor.
According to the report, energy costs ranked as the most significant driver of inflation perceptions among both businesses and households.
Businesses assigned energy costs a score of 74.1 points, while households recorded 61.9 points, placing fuel and electricity costs well ahead of other inflation drivers.
For businesses, the other leading concerns were:
- Insecurity – 71.3 points
- Interest rates – 69.0 points
- Exchange rate movements – 68.8 points
Among households, the key inflation drivers were:
- Transportation costs – 61.2 points
- Insecurity – 56.5 points
- Exchange rate fluctuations – 54.1 points
The CBN noted that factors such as natural disasters, raw material shortages, household purchases and infrastructure challenges were viewed as less significant contributors to inflation during the review period.
The survey showed that businesses continue to bear a heavier inflation burden than households.
About 60.9 per cent of firms reported higher operating expenses due to inflation in July, compared with 55.9 per cent of households that experienced increased spending.
Despite these pressures, respondents across both groups expressed optimism that inflation-related costs would moderate over the next six months.
The CBN said businesses were particularly confident that inflation would ease. “Overall, business and household respondents anticipate a gradual reduction in inflation-related expenditure over the next six months. This expectation is largely influenced by business respondents, who exhibit a more optimistic outlook regarding the easing of inflationary pressures,” the report stated.
Inflation perceptions varied across income groups.
Households earning between N150,001 and N250,000 per month reported the highest perception of inflation, with 71 per cent indicating they felt strong price pressures.
By contrast, respondents earning between N350,001 and N450,000 recorded the lowest inflation perception at 55.6 per cent.
The Inflation Perception Index stood at 40.0 points in July, indicating that respondents believed inflation had moderated compared with the previous month.
Meanwhile, the Inflation Expectation Index is projected to decline further to 21.2 points in August, suggesting growing confidence that inflationary pressures will continue to ease.
The survey comes after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria’s headline inflation eased slightly to 15.91 per cent in June 2026, from 15.93 per cent in May.
While the moderation has improved consumer and business confidence, energy prices remain a significant risk.
The findings also come as the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) considers new regulations aimed at preventing fuel marketers from coordinating prices, restricting supply or engaging in anti-competitive practices.
The proposed rules follow renewed concerns over fuel pricing in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market.
