Nigeria’s food import bill hit a staggering ₦7.65 trillion in 2025, marking a four-year high and raising urgent questions about the sustainability of the country’s agricultural policies. The surge, largely driven by the Federal Government’s 2024 import waiver policy, was introduced to combat soaring food inflation, which at its peak had exceeded 40 per cent. While the policy temporarily eased consumer pressure, it has had unintended consequences for local producers, food security, and the economy at large.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that Nigeria spent ₦2.86 trillion on food and beverage imports in 2022 and ₦3.83 trillion in 2023, before surging to ₦7.65 trillion in 2025. Analysts attribute this sharp increase to the 2024 import waiver, designed to make imported food cheaper and more accessible to Nigerian households and industries.
While the waiver policy offered immediate relief to consumers, it has come at a steep cost. Local farmers and agro-processors, unable to compete with lower-priced imports, have been forced to scale down production or shut down operations entirely. Rice mills in states such as Anambra have reported closures, leaving many workers unemployed and families struggling.
A local rice miller who spoke anonymously described the situation as “devastating,” adding, “The market became saturated with imported rice, which was cheaper than locally produced rice. We were forced to sell at a loss. Several mills have shut down, and jobs have been lost.”
The surge in food imports has significant macroeconomic implications. It places immense pressure on Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves, diverting dollars that could have been used to support industrial development, infrastructure, or debt obligations. Over-reliance on imported food also exposes the country to global supply shocks, such as price spikes or shipping disruptions.
Tunde Banjoko, Chairman, Agric Sector, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), warned, “We need to look for more sustainable measures to increase food production because importation is not sustainable. It also puts pressure on foreign exchange. Rather than importation, we should be talking about how to export.”
Further breakdown of the 2025 import bill shows that ₦1.34 trillion was spent on food for household consumption, more than double the ₦529.4 billion in 2022. Industrial use accounted for roughly ₦2.09 trillion, while processed food imports alone exceeded ₦4 trillion, representing more than a 100 per cent increase compared to 2022.
Beyond economic strain, local farmers are struggling to repay loans. Reports indicate that over 70 per cent of farmers who borrowed from the Bank of Agriculture have yet to meet their repayment obligations, reflecting declining revenues and losses caused by market saturation.
Experts argue that the waiver policy, while well-intentioned, has weakened incentives for local production. Ibrahim Kabiru, President of the Nigeria Agribusiness Group (NABG), noted, “The policy was introduced without considering the purchasing power of Nigerians and how it would impact farmers. Massive importation flooded the market, making it impossible for local producers to compete.”
The closure of local mills and reduced farm profitability have far-reaching social impacts. Job losses are a direct consequence, while rural communities dependent on farming face increased poverty and migration to urban centres. The long-term effect is a weakening of Nigeria’s agricultural base, jeopardising food security and the country’s ability to respond to domestic demand without resorting to imports.
Nigeria must now reconcile short-term consumer relief with long-term agricultural sustainability. Analysts suggest several measures to mitigate the negative impacts of the waiver policy:
- Promote Local Production: Investment in modern farming techniques, mechanisation, and infrastructure is essential to boost yields and reduce dependency on imports.
- Implement Strategic Import Controls: Instead of blanket waivers, Nigeria could adopt selective import policies, including quotas or tariffs, to protect local markets while ensuring essential commodities remain affordable.
- Support Agro-Processing: Incentives for local processing can improve competitiveness and reduce reliance on imported processed foods. Credit facilities, tax breaks, and technical assistance could encourage investment in this sector.
- Guaranteed Minimum Price (GMP) Schemes: Protecting farmers with floor pricing policies ensures that key crops like maize, rice, and soy remain profitable, particularly during harvest gluts.
- Focus on Export-Oriented Agriculture: Building capacities to produce for both domestic and international markets can generate foreign exchange while strengthening the agricultural sector.
- Subsidies for Farm Inputs: Fertilisers and other critical inputs have seen price increases in the last year. Government intervention could help stabilise production costs and improve productivity.
Nigeria’s record food import bill in 2025 is both a symptom and a warning. While the waiver policy eased inflationary pressures temporarily, it has revealed structural weaknesses in the country’s agricultural sector and created dependency on foreign supplies. Without urgent intervention, local farmers may continue to struggle, jobs may be lost, and the nation’s food security could be jeopardised.
Sustainable policies that balance import relief with robust local production are essential. By supporting farmers, protecting domestic industries, and strategically managing imports, Nigeria can chart a path toward a resilient, self-sufficient, and export-capable food economy.
