Nigeria’s fuel supply position strengthened in January 2026, with petrol stock sufficiency rising to 33 days, even as total daily PMS supply declined month-on-month, fresh data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) shows.
The figures reveal a sector in transition: domestic refining is gaining influence, imports are declining, but diesel demand is surging beyond benchmarks, a warning sign about deeper structural energy weaknesses.
Petrol Supply Falls – But Stocks Improve
According to the NMDPRA fact sheet:
- PMS domestic supply fell from 74.2 million litres/day in December 2025 to 63.0 million litres/day in January 2026.
- PMS consumption also dipped slightly to 60.2 million litres/day.
- Yet, PMS stock sufficiency improved from 29.2 days to 33 days.
The improvement in stock cover suggests stronger inventory management and increased inland supply contributions, particularly from domestic refineries.
National fuel sufficiency now stands at:
- Petrol (PMS): 33 days
- Diesel (AGO): 34 days
- Aviation fuel (ATK): 20 days
- Cooking gas (LPG): 18 days
While the headline numbers point to stability, analysts note that sufficiency levels are increasingly dependent on the performance of one major refinery.
Dangote Refinery Carries the Weight
The Dangote Refinery has emerged as the dominant supply anchor in the downstream market.
January performance indicators show:
- Average capacity utilisation: 61.27 per cent
- Planned PMS supply: 75 million litres/day
- Actual PMS domestic supply: 40.1 million litres/day
- AGO supply: 10.9 million litres/day
- Peak capacity utilisation: 67.69 per cent
Although output remains below planned projections, the refinery’s 40.1 million litres/day PMS contribution significantly shapes national supply dynamics.
With state-owned refineries inactive, the country’s energy security now hinges largely on Dangote’s operational stability.
State Refineries Still Shut
The report confirms that Nigeria’s state-owned refineries remain offline:
- Port Harcourt Refinery (PHRC): Shut down
- Warri Refinery (WRPC): Shut down
- Kaduna Refinery (KRPC): Shut down
This prolonged inactivity continues to limit Nigeria’s refining diversity and increases concentration risk in the supply chain.
Modular refineries made only marginal contributions, with a total average output of about 0.296 million litres/day, too small to significantly alter national supply dynamics.
Diesel Consumption Jumps 37% Above Benchmark
Perhaps the most striking signal from the report is diesel demand.
- AGO consumption averaged 19.2 million litres/day
- The 2026 benchmark stands at 14 million litres/day
That represents demand roughly 37 per cent above target expectations.
The spike reflects persistent dependence on diesel-powered generators by businesses and households amid unreliable grid electricity. Industrial expansion and logistics demand are also contributing factors.
If this trend persists, it could exert pressure on diesel pricing and supply buffers.
Gas Supply Shows Stability
Domestic natural gas supply rose slightly from 4.787 Bscf/day in December to 4.837 Bscf/day in January, offering modest reassurance for power generation and industrial usage.
However, LPG sufficiency remains relatively thin at 18 days, raising questions about resilience in the cooking gas segment.
The Bigger Picture: Progress, But Fragile
January’s data suggests Nigeria is gradually shifting from import dependence toward domestic refining-led supply. Marine (import) stock levels continue to decline, reinforcing that transition.
But the sector remains fragile.
- Dangote has not yet met planned supply volumes.
- State refineries remain dormant.
- Diesel demand is outpacing benchmarks.
- LPG buffers remain modest.
For now, fuel queues are absent and stock cover is comfortable. But Nigeria’s downstream stability increasingly rests on a narrow operational base.
The test ahead is whether domestic refining can consistently scale output, and whether broader power sector reforms can tame diesel demand.
Until then, the numbers may look better, but the structural strain remains.
