Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 14.45 per cent in November, falling below the federal government’s budget benchmark for the first time in six years and offering relief to households and businesses.
The figure is below the 15–16 per cent inflation target set in the 2025 Budget, themed “Budget of Restoration,” and aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s goal of bringing inflation down to 15 per cent by the end of 2025.
Tinubu first announced the target during the presentation of the 2025 Appropriation Bill to the National Assembly in December 2024 and reaffirmed it in his New Year’s address.
Economists say the slowdown reflects both policy impact and improving market conditions. Ayo Teriba, Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, noted that the easing inflation is largely a lag effect rather than a direct result of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebasing carried out earlier in 2025.
The National Bureau of Statistics rebased the CPI in early 2025, shifting the base year to 2024 and updating consumption weights. This led to a sharp statistical drop in inflation from 34.8 per cent in December 2024 to 24.48 per cent in January 2025, followed by a steady decline in subsequent months, except February.
Analysts at Meristem attributed the continued moderation to improved food supply from the harvest season and a relatively stable exchange rate. Prices of key staples such as maize, sorghum, paddy rice, and soybean declined during the period.
The naira also strengthened by 1.45 per cent month-on-month, averaging ₦1,443.85 per dollar in November, compared to ₦1,465.04 in October.
As a result, food inflation fell for the fifth consecutive month to 11.08 per cent from 13.12 per cent, while core inflation eased to 18.04 per cent from 18.69 per cent.
Looking ahead, Teriba projected that inflation could slow to single digits by January 2026, as post-festive price pressures ease after “Detty December,” potentially ending more than five years of double-digit inflation.
