Nigeria’s petrol consumption has surged by 34 per cent, signalling a rebound in economic activity and rising vehicle demand across the country.
Average daily consumption of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) climbed to 63.7 million litres in December 2025, up from 47.5 million litres in October 2024, according to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). The December figure marks the highest level recorded in a 15-month tracking period.
Analysts link the surge largely to increased vehicle imports, particularly rugged four-wheel-drive models used by security agencies and private operators.
Bismarck Rewane, Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company, said the trend reflects heightened demand for durable vehicles amid ongoing security operations. Toyota Hilux pickups accounted for about 54 per cent of Toyota imports during the period, underscoring the shift toward high-consumption vehicles.
Passenger vehicle imports rose to N1.01 trillion in the first nine months of 2025, compared with N894.09 billion in the same period of 2024. The United States led with 41 per cent of total imports (N415.05 billion), followed by South Africa and the United Arab Emirates.
Energy consultant Ayodeji Dawodu noted that the spike in petrol usage is tied not only to economic expansion but also to the fuel efficiency of vehicles entering the market.
The rebound comes nearly two years after the Federal Government removed fuel subsidies in May 2023, a move that initially dampened demand as pump prices tripled.
Petrol now sells between N800 and N850 per litre, averaging N839, still lower than prices in neighbouring countries. Cameroon’s price stands above N2,100 per litre, while Benin and Niger sell above N1,200.
Financial Derivatives Company estimates Nigeria’s equilibrium price, based on regional averages, should be around N1,176 per litre, about 40 per cent higher than current rates, creating incentives for cross-border smuggling.
Rising consumption is also testing Nigeria’s refining capacity. Although the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery began operations in 2024 and has pledged to supply up to 75 million litres daily, the country still imports refined products to bridge supply gaps.
Monthly data show fluctuations in demand, with peaks in late 2024, a dip in September 2025, and a renewed surge toward year-end.
While higher petrol usage suggests increased mobility and commercial activity, it also raises concerns. The jump in vehicle imports has put pressure on foreign exchange reserves and complicated efforts to stabilise the naira.
Analysts warn that without a stronger automotive policy promoting local manufacturing and assembly, Nigeria may remain dependent on importing both vehicles and the fuel to power them.
The consumption surge, therefore, reflects a dual reality: signs of economic revival on one hand and structural policy challenges on the other.
