Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow by 4.49 per cent in 2026, buoyed by sustained reform gains, stronger private sector investment, and improving macroeconomic stability, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said.
The projection, contained in the CBN’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria, released on Tuesday, represents an improvement over the estimated 3.89 per cent growth in 2025.
According to the apex bank, the outlook hinges on the consistent and well-sequenced implementation of fiscal and monetary policies. It said full execution of the 2025–2027 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) is expected to stimulate domestic consumption and investment, boost employment, and support aggregate demand.
The CBN noted that growth prospects remain positive, driven by broad-based structural reforms that have improved the business environment, attracted capital inflows, increased government revenue, and enhanced stability in the foreign exchange market.
It added that its easing monetary policy stance could further support expansion, as lower lending rates are expected to reduce borrowing costs and improve access to credit for households and businesses. Large-scale private investments, including projects such as the Dangote Refinery, are also expected to significantly strengthen economic activity in 2026.
Higher crude oil production is another key driver, supported by improved security around oil assets, enhanced surveillance, and the deployment of the Production Monitoring Command Centre (PMCC). Expanded domestic refining capacity and relatively stable energy prices are also expected to support output growth.
The outlook further reflects expectations of increased fiscal spending, including pre-election expenditure, which could stimulate aggregate demand. The CBN stressed that effective coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities would be critical to sustaining exchange rate stability, controlling inflation, and supporting job creation.
However, the bank warned of downside risks. It cautioned that if inflation does not decelerate as projected, monetary policy easing could be reversed, dampening growth prospects. Persistently high costs of doing business, weak infrastructure, and insecurity could also constrain productivity and private sector expansion.
Other risks include potential job losses from corporate cost-cutting, adverse climatic conditions affecting agriculture and logistics, and unexpected disruptions to crude oil production due to security breaches or force majeure events.
The CBN’s baseline assumptions include an average crude oil price of $55 per barrel in 2026, an exchange rate of ₦1,400 per dollar, and domestic crude oil production of about 1.50 million barrels per day, excluding condensates. Petrol prices are expected to average around ₦950 per litre, while fiscal policy is projected to remain expansionary in line with the government’s $1 trillion economy target.
On inflation, the bank projected a continued slowdown, with headline inflation expected to ease to 12.94 per cent in 2026, from an estimated 21.26 per cent in 2025, driven by moderating food prices, improved FX stability, and easing energy costs.
Sectorally, growth is expected to be supported by services, mining and quarrying, ICT, transport, trade, and real estate, as increased investment, digital expansion, and infrastructure development sustain economic momentum into 2026.
