The Dangote Petroleum Refinery could save Nigeria more than N15 trillion annually in fuel import costs and generate about $11 billion in foreign exchange inflows, according to Dele Oye, Chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics LTD/GTE and former President of NACCIMA.
Oye also criticised the stance of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited on fuel import licences, arguing that continued reliance on imports undermines Nigeria’s push for energy self-sufficiency despite the existence of large domestic refining capacity.
He said Nigeria spent about N15.42 trillion on petrol imports in 2024, describing it as a major drain on foreign exchange reserves and a structural weakness in the economy.
According to him, the Dangote Refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, can meet over 90 per cent of Nigeria’s domestic fuel demand if fully integrated into the national supply chain.
He estimated that expanded reliance on local refining could reduce foreign exchange outflows by up to $11 billion annually, easing pressure on the naira and improving macroeconomic stability.
Oye faulted NNPC’s argument that continued fuel imports are necessary to preserve competition, insisting that it instead entrenches dependency on foreign refineries and weakens local industrial growth.
“NNPC is not defending competition. It is defending importation,” he said, adding that such a position contradicts the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, which prioritises domestic refining and local value addition.
He further argued that sustained imports expose Nigeria to global price shocks, foreign exchange volatility, and job losses, while exporting value-added opportunities abroad.
Oye called for a review of import licensing under the Petroleum Industry Act, stronger protection for local refineries, and targeted incentives to support private investment in refining infrastructure.
He also urged transparency in refinery rehabilitation spending and greater accountability for past turnaround maintenance projects, saying inefficiencies in state-owned refineries have worsened import dependence.
Citing international examples such as Brazil, Saudi Arabia, India, and the United States, Oye said most major economies protect and support domestic refining capacity through deliberate industrial policies.
He said Nigeria risks undermining its industrialisation goals if it continues to prioritise fuel imports over local refining, despite having the capacity to meet domestic demand.
Oye described the Dangote Refinery as a landmark achievement in Nigeria’s industrial development, saying it demonstrates what is possible when private capital and national ambition align.
He added that the facility not only meets domestic fuel needs but is already exporting refined products such as jet fuel to international markets, highlighting its global competitiveness.
According to him, “Nigeria does not need to import refined petroleum products. It needs to refine its own petroleum, by its own people, in its own facilities, for its own benefit.”
He concluded that Nigeria’s challenge is no longer capacity but political will, urging alignment with a production-driven economic agenda focused on industrialisation and energy sovereignty.
