The World Bank has projected a 60 per cent surge in global urea prices in 2026, raising fresh concerns about fertilizer affordability, food inflation, and agricultural productivity, especially in developing economies like Nigeria.
The forecast, contained in the World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, attributes the expected spike to tightening supply conditions, rising energy costs, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Urea, one of the most widely used nitrogen-based fertilisers, plays a critical role in crop production, making its price movements a key factor for farmers and food systems.
According to the report, urea prices could climb above $700 per metric tonne under adverse conditions, potentially reaching one of the highest levels seen in decades.
Global fertiliser prices are also expected to rise by over 31 per cent in 2026, while affordability may fall to its weakest level since 2022.
A major driver of the increase is the cost of natural gas, which accounts for 80–90 per cent of ammonia production, the key input for urea manufacturing.
The World Bank highlighted supply disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, as a major factor constraining global fertiliser supply.
Additional pressures include shipping bottlenecks, logistics challenges, and export restrictions by key producing countries, all of which are contributing to market volatility.
These factors could push prices even higher if disruptions persist or escalate.
Rising fertiliser costs are expected to increase production expenses for farmers, potentially reducing fertiliser usage and affecting crop yields.
For Nigeria, the impact could be mixed. While local producers may benefit from higher global prices, farmers are likely to face higher input costs, raising the risk of increased food prices and worsening inflation.
The outlook underscores the vulnerability of import-dependent economies to global supply shocks and highlights the importance of strengthening local fertiliser production capacity.
With global markets under pressure, the cost of feeding populations could rise sharply unless supply conditions improve.
