The World Bank has raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa by 0.3 percentage points to 4.3 per cent, citing stronger-than-expected performance across several economies in the region.
The revised projection was contained in the World Bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update, its biannual assessment of economic developments and the outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa.
The lender said growth forecasts had been upgraded for nearly three-quarters of the region’s economies, including Angola, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Zambia.
“Growth in the region is projected to rise from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 4.3 per cent in 2026, 0.3 percentage points above the April 2026 forecast,” the World Bank said.
The improved outlook comes despite persistent challenges, including geopolitical tensions, climate shocks, declining development assistance and fiscal pressures confronting several African economies.
According to the World Bank, the region has remained resilient, supported by improved macroeconomic management, stronger domestic demand and increased investment associated with the energy transition and digital technologies.
Andrew Dabalen, World Bank Chief Economist for the Africa Region, said the improved outlook reflected years of reforms and better economic management in several countries.
He, however, cautioned that stronger headline growth must translate into more jobs and improved living standards.
“These gains reflect years of reforms and improved economic management. The next challenge is turning growth into more jobs and better opportunities,” Dabalen said.
Despite the upgrade, the World Bank warned that the region’s current growth rate remains insufficient to significantly reduce extreme poverty or create enough jobs for its rapidly expanding working-age population.
The latest projection marks a significant improvement from the World Bank’s April forecast, when it cut its 2026 growth outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa by 0.3 percentage points to 4.1 per cent.
The lender said growth is now accelerating in 21 of the 47 Sub-Saharan African economies covered by its assessment, with the median increase estimated at 0.8 percentage point compared with 2025.
Several economies that experienced weak growth or contraction in 2025 are expected to record significant improvements this year.
Equatorial Guinea, for instance, is projected to improve from a 5.8 per cent contraction in 2025 to a 1.2 per cent contraction in 2026, representing an improvement of about 4.6 percentage points.
Botswana is expected to rebound from a 0.7 per cent contraction to 3.4 per cent growth, while Zambia’s growth is projected to accelerate from 3.8 per cent to 5.6 per cent.
Angola is forecast to grow by 4.5 per cent, up from 3.1 per cent in 2025, while the Republic of Congo is projected to expand by 4.4 per cent, compared with 3.1 per cent last year.
The World Bank noted that about half of the countries in the region have already surpassed their average annual growth rates recorded between 2000 and 2019.
Nigeria is also among the countries benefiting from the improved regional outlook.
The World Bank has raised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.3 per cent, up from 4.0 per cent in 2025, with growth projected at 4.4 per cent in both 2027 and 2028.
The revised forecast follows stronger recent economic performance, including an acceleration in real GDP growth during the second quarter of 2026.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2026, compared with 4.23 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025.
The latest World Bank outlook places Nigeria among a growing number of African economies expected to sustain stronger expansion as the region’s economic momentum improves.
However, the lender’s warning remains significant: faster GDP growth alone will not be enough unless it generates productive jobs, raises incomes and improves living standards across the region.
